Saturday, July 07, 2007

Fiat currencies like the US dollar

I agree with this article almost 100%

I say I agree "almost 100%" because when a crash of the fiat dollar does occur, I don't believe that it will be as bad as this article suggests: too much is riding on making any crash "gentle" and drawn out. If the dollar lost 60% of its value in one year, that would be a catastrophe, but if the dollar loses 75% of its value slowly and steadily over 10 to 15 years, then I think that society will slowly adapt: lots of cutting back on expenses, sharing homes, eating a less expensive vegetarian diet, and generally cutting living expenses as much as possible. People are resilient and adaptable, and for things that really matter, most people will still lead a good life.

I believe that this article is correct: our government and big business are doing everything that they can to postpone the fiat dollar collapse (invaded Iraq and currently threatening Iran, Venezuela, and even Russia with our threat of a missile shield around their borders). My personal opinion is that our elite class should let the crash start to happen in a slow, steady, controlled way -- and perhaps that is what is exactly happening right now with diminishing purchasing power of the dollar for food, housing, education and transportation (thankfully offset somewhat by cheaper imported goods).

4 comments:

RichOnRails said...

Mark, in 2000 I experience a tramatic impact on my IT career from Globalization. Some say this orginated from the GOP and big business, but Bill Gates is part of the Dem community and he has forced government opening the H1B Visa quota so that MS can get cheap labor. I feel that I am a pawn for whoever is in power. For me, is Globalization better or worst than Socialism with it social engineering?

Mark Watson, author and consultant said...

Hello Rich. Yes, after the dot com crash, consulting work dried up for me as well. I think that the dot com crash had more to do with a bubble event (right now we are looking at housing and derivative bubbles bursting) than democratic or republican policies.

Things go in cycles. I remember years ago talking to a building contractor and his wife while on vacation. This was in the middle of the last housing and construction crash, and I asked him about it. He said no problem: he counted on a periodic down cycles, planned for them expense wise, and enjoyed the occasional year with little work.

This is a bit off topic, but it amazes me how many people "live on the edge" financially, expecting boom cycles to continue forever.

If I may give advice to you and other friends, enjoy Ruby on Rails, etc. consulting work, enjoy life, but try very hard to not have debt and try to save a little money.

RichOnRails said...

Hello Mark, I have been comparing lifestyles. Taking ROR jobs in the big cities with large housing expenses or continue telecommute and move to a lower housing expense community. Currently, I am in Phoenix and everything has doubled in the past 2 years. Thanks to Real Estate investors. Some ways the downsizing appears attractive but I remember the financial hard times from the post 2000 IT crash. It seems easier to look down at the tiolet bowl that up from it. But I am associating income hardships with downsizing, perhaps that is not true. What is your experience?
It is nice to have someone willing to talk about this. Thanks for listening.

Mark Watson, author and consultant said...

Hello Rich,

It is probably a wash: living in a big city with higher salary and higher costs of living vs. living in a rural area with lower (possibly telecommuting) salary and lower costs of living.

We used to live in San Diego and moved to north-central Arizona to cut living costs -- but we also really like it here a lot.